Offshore Drilling Smokescreen

Yesterday the United States House of Representatives approved an energy bill. This included a package of energy initiatives, including measures that would allow oil drilling as close as 50 miles off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, and to finance the long-term development of alternative energy sources.

Frightening is the thought of how much power ignorant bumbling politicians have. They are voting on issues they seem to have no clue about.

As mentioned in a previous post, it will take at least a decade before production in the oilfields will be on-line.

Is this legislation serious, or only trying to get votes for November? 85 per cent of known offshore oil reserves are inside the 50-mile mark, so these new areas 100 miles out will not make much difference.

The United State's own Energy Information Administration (EIA) has published a report on the energy outlook to 2030. In it the EIA stated that it will take at least a decade before there is production from these offshore continental shelf areas.

The Offshore Energy & Minerals Management Service(MMS) has estimated in their strategic plan for the period 2007 to 2012, there are around 18 billion barrels in the underwater areas now off-limits to drilling. There are 10 billion barrels of known oil reserves available for exploitation in oilfields in the Gulf of Mexico, coastal Alaska and off the coast of southern California. In addition an estimated 86 billion are yet to be discovered. The information is so upto date that even undiscovered oilfields are known!

To put these figures in context, according to the Energy Information Administration, the U.S. uses 7.6 billion barrels of oil a year. World consumption is 31.8 billion barrels a year.

The EIA estimates that by 2030, U.S. oil demand will be 8.4 billion barrels a year. The world demand is expected to be 43 billion barrels a year.

A month ago House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ruled out a vote on new offshore oil drilling. But this is election year and the election is close, so they vote election tactically instead of on principle.
Recently there has been a swing in public opinion, towards allowing offshore drilling. This is dynamic democracy, with parties vioting according to the latest gallup poll we can do away with elactions, and even political parties for that matter, since party principles appear to be outdated.

Beyond 100 miles offshore is far enough away from ecotourists, so there can be a free-for-all. Between 50 miles to 100 miles from shore, states will have the choice whether to allow drilling, and no drilling will be allowed within 50 miles of shore. The Republicans say the measures are not enough. They want to drill three miles off the coast.

Congress has until Sept. 30, when the current ban on offshore oil drilling will expire, and exploration will be allowed as close as three miles off all U.S. coastlines. Congress has renewed bans on drilling off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts and the eastern Gulf of Mexico off Florida yearly for the past 26 years.

A mention of oil-shale slipped in among the hoo-ha about a pointless offshore legislation. That is where the real oil resources in the United States lie. This legislation allows for oil-shale development in Western states. That is something environmentalists should take note of. Maybe the drilling 100 miles offshore is a smokescreen for developing oil-shale and oil-sand deposits?

Offshore Drilling is Pointless

The Republicans are making much of offshore oil drilling in restricted areas, and how this offshore oil production can help in the energy crisis to bring down the price of gasoline. Clearly it can help get John McCain elected, but will do nothing for the United States’ energy situation in the next few years. Nothing as in zero, nada, and zilch.

In a country where a significant part of the population still think Saddam Hussein had something to do with 9-11, maybe it is not strange to believe anything a politician states as truth. Sarah Palin is a Christian and Christians don’t lie, or? It is impossible to be a top politician and not lie, so Christian politicians must lie to survive in politics. This is not cynical; it is reality.

There are vast oil reserves, in oil shale and oil tar deposits, in the Unites States in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, and in Canada in Saskatchewan and Alberta. More than in the Middle East. The offshore oil in restricted areas is negligible by comparison.

Missing in the debate on offshore drilling are the minor development issues such as geology, geophysics and geological surveys. Much more detailed surveys are needed before offshore drilling companies will send a drill bit down. It involves more than just drilling a hole and collecting, crude that shoots up in the air.

To check if the offshore drilling is feasible, is easy. The Energy Information Agency (EIA) has a website with a report on predictions of energy resources and management to the year 2030. There they have published a report titled: “Annual Energy Outlook 2007 with Projections to 2030.”

The $4 gasoline is a problem now, but the man from the Straight Talk Express is talking like a previous presidential candidate. George Bush Snr said, “No more taxes, read my lips.” After entering the White House Bush increased taxes, which he must have been aware he would do when he made the promise. McCain knows he is talking baloney, or else he is repeating what his speech-writers wrote and is as clueless as America’s mainstream media on the issue.

The Energy Information Agency says there is not much oil in the restricted areas. The oil will not be on the market for another decade, and when it does it is unlikely to make any impact on the gas price. Well not more than a couple of cents . . . literally.

The connection, offshore drilling – lower gas prices, is a lie.

This environmentally controversial drilling will possibly yield at a peak about 200,000 barrels per day by 2030. In perspective of world production, that is a trickle. In other words, drilling in the restricted areas will produce 0.2% of global output in 22 years.

In presidential terms that is a loooong time. That could be six presidents away, or three if each is re-elected for a second term.

The Energy Information Agency report states that the projections in the restricted offshore drilling areas, indicate that theese regions, Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf, do not have much oil. This will not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production, or prices before 2030.

If restrictions are lifted immediately after McCain takes office, production would not be expected to start before 2017. Without the offshore drilling, expected domestic oil production will be 2.4 million barrels per day, and with offshore drilling 2.4 million barrels. The report continues, “Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant.”

On the feasibility of drilling in these the report predicts, “. . . conversion of those resources to production would require both time and money. In addition, the average field size in the Pacific and Atlantic regions are smaller than the average in the Gulf of Mexico, implying that a significant portion of the additional resource would not be economically attractive to develop at the reference case prices (predicted price).

Before any drill bit touches the continental shelf, and any offshore development takes place, the oil companies will have to carry out surveys. Test drilling follows these surveys. Normally there is much drilling in many holes before production can start. Oil exploration has an element of luck in it.

Encouraging Detroit to produce more economical car engines can reduce the need for oil, thus improving the environment. Drilling offshore is a senseless exercise that has potential for environmental damage without any great benefit.

Quotes of the day:
“Since a politician never believes what he says, he is quite surprised to be taken at his word.”
Charles De Gaulle (1890 - 1970)

“Politicians are the same all over. They promise to build a bridge even where there is no river.”
Nikita Khrushchev (1894 - 1971)